Gemma Bastiani looks ahead to what promises to be an exciting round six
Western Bulldogs v Carlton at Whitten Oval, 7:15pm AEDT
The Western Bulldogs’ season is on the line. If the Dogs want to generate momentum in the second half of the season, they must defeat Carlton on Friday. If they lose, it will be their sixth straight defeat, the club’s longest losing streak in history. The Bulldogs’ biggest problem has been how badly they have been breaking apart late in games, losing all but one final quarter, and this is something they must fix if they are to beat the Blues. Carlton comes into this game with a lot of confidence, three wins, and evidence that every player is on the same page – far more than the Dogs can say.
Carlton has the opportunity to exploit a somewhat vulnerable Bulldogs defence, averaging the third-most tackles inside 50 this season, which has led to a significant increase in scoring. The Dogs, however, have been conceding nearly double the points they did last season, and with a tall trio of Phoebe McWilliams, Mia Austin and one of Breann Moody or Jess Good to contend with, minimising the hurt on the scoreboard becomes an even tougher task. It is likely Gab Newton will be swung into defence for the Dogs to help quell Carlton’s firepower, but that leaves them limited in attack when they are able to gain possession of the footy.
Tip: The pain continues for the Bulldogs. Carlton by five points.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 7
Greater Western Sydney v West Coast at Blacktown International Sportspark, 1:05pm AEDT
Fresh off its first win in nearly 400 days, West Coast will travel to Blacktown with a heap of confidence in its young group to stick fat when challenged late in matches. The Eagles have never won back-to-back games, but this presents as their best opportunity to tick that goal off the list. On the reverse, GWS is currently on the longest losing streak in club history, dropping its last five games. Much of that hurt, like the Bulldogs, has come in the final quarter for the Giants, kicking just one point in fourth quarters, while conceding 128 in that same time.
The midfield battle will be a fascinating one, with the Eagles steadily improving their clearance work since losing the differential by 27 in round two, but they have also proven that they don’t need to win the clearance count to claim victory. Meanwhile, the Giants remain heavily reliant on star Alyce Parker to get the job done through the middle. Parker, who is averaging 5.8 clearances a week – a fifth of the Giants’ average – will likely need to work through an Aisling McCarthy run-with role. McCarthy is not only a great stopper, but makes her opposition accountable to her running the other way, and it is the matchup that could decide the game.
Tip: This is a prime opportunity for the Eagles to break through a mental barrier. West Coast by three points.
Melbourne v Adelaide at Casey Fields, 3:05pm AEDT
Undoubtedly the game of the round, this will be the 10th meeting between Melbourne and Adelaide, and in true form, both sides come in undefeated. Melbourne has won five of their matchups to date, Adelaide the other four. As the two most dominant teams of the season, they are also the two highest scoring sides, with Melbourne averaging 79.8 points and Adelaide 66.6, while they are also both high-disposal teams, wanting to control the play with ball in hand.
What the Demons are particularly good at is creating scoring opportunities once inside 50. Generating a shot on goal from 61.7 per cent of its inside 50s, Melbourne attacks with real purpose coming out of stoppage, flicking the ball around by hand and running in waves. The Demons forwards are patient, willing to wait for the right option to appear before hitting them up. This is something Adelaide needs to be really aware of, particularly without defensive conductor Sarah Allan in the side. Wingers must be accountable of their opponents sliding into attack, and others need to be willing to work hard to block leading lanes in the Demons’ forward 50.
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