Daniel Jones is not the (only) problem in New York
The Giants’ decision to pay $40 million to the polarizing quarterback is no longer working. But the contract is not as bad as everyone thinks and the team rebuild is still on track.
The New York Giants were in such turmoil at the end of the 2021 season that Mara’s family called in the only people with enough experience to deal with such dysfunction:
the guys who fixed the Buffalo Bills. In January 2022, the Giants poached the mastermind from Buffalo and brought in Bills assistant general manager Joe Schoen and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll as general manager and head coach, respectively. During Schoen’s introductory press conference, he talked about how they took the Bills from a bumbling embarrassment to a perennial power.
“In Buffalo, this didn’t happen overnight,” Schoen said. “We went 9-7 (first year in 2017). … Our second year we went 6-10 and it wasn’t until our third year that we made the playoffs. Again, this will take time. This will not happen overnight. »
But it feels like it happened overnight. In Daboll and Schoen’s first season, the Giants went 9-7-1, earned a playoff spot, recorded a convincing playoff victory over the Minnesota Vikings and received the Daboll and Schoen World Cup Award. NFL Coach of the Year for Daboll. This offseason, the team extended Daniel Jones’ contract, paying him $40 million per year as the franchise quarterback. But now that overnight celebration has turned into a hangover.
On Sunday night, the lowly 1-4 Giants — who were beaten by the Miami Dolphins last week — are scheduled to take on the Bills, the model on which the Giants are based. . These same Bills adjusted to these Dolphins just two weeks ago and were favored by more than two touchdowns against the G-Men. The Giants are much weaker teams than the winless Carolina Panthers, who will play the Dolphins on Sunday.
This Bills-Giants game appears to be more than just a kick in the butt. Seeing how Daboll and Schoen’s team plays against their old Buffalo brethren will be a natural time for everyone to reflect on how the Giants are playing. Major upset aside, this game raises questions that will haunt the Giants for years to come. Is Daboll a flash in the pan? Is a Giants rebuild in the works? And why are they paying Daniel Jones $40 million a year?
It’s probably worth noting that I’m a Giants fan. I’m sorry the Giants had to play four primetime games in the first six weeks. (We don’t like it any more than you do.) I also want to be the real dog in the meme drinking coffee in a burning house and saying “That’s good.” For everything that went wrong with the Giants this season — which was a lot — Daboll and Jones weren’t the problem. Jones is not the reason the Giants failed. New York’s rebuild is still on track, even if it doesn’t look like it or will on Sunday night. And even if he becomes a punching bag, Jones’ contract isn’t ideal but isn’t a big deal either. It is good.
I agree that the Giants’ 2023 season has been a disgusting one so far. The team is 1-4. They are last in the NFC East. The team cannot block, pass or score. The Giants have allowed 30 sacks in five games, which not only leads the NFL but is the most by any team since the NFL began tracking sacks in 1982, with the exception of the Giants. Texas Houston in a period of expansion. The Giants offense has allowed the sixth-fewest points in the first half (19) so far in a season in the last 20 years. In adjusted net yards per attempt — which includes the value of sacks, interceptions and touchdowns as if they were passing the ball — New York’s passing average earned the lowest yards. three (2.2) since the NFL’s passing revolution began in 2012. bears repeat. New York’s average passer added just over two yards of offensive value. Two meters is six feet. The Giants’ passing was so bad that it was almost impossible to send them to their own graves.
For most teams, a 24-3 loss to Seattle while allowing 11 sacks on Monday Night Football in Week 4 would be one of the worst losses in memory. But for the Giants, it wasn’t even their worst loss this season. In week one, the Giants were rocked 40-0 by Dallas, in one of the worst losses in franchise history. As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell pointed out, it was worse than the 2020 Broncos-Saints game that had a practice squad playing quarterback:
Once again, this Giants season has been disgusting. But this disgust cannot be blamed solely on Jones, mainly because Jones is often the one at his feet. Jones can’t do much with the worst pass protection in the league. If we look at offensive linemen who have played at least 200 snaps this season, here is where the Giants offensive linemen rank according to Pro Football Focus grade. LT Josh Ezeudu (59th of 62 tackles)
LG Mark Glowinski (52nd out of 58 guards)
C Ben Bredeson (19th out of 30 centers)
RG Marcus McKethan (55th of 58 guards)
RT Evan Neal (61st of 62 tackles)
With this type of blocking, New York needs pass catchers who can get open immediately. Instead, they have Darren Waller, who has not integrated well into the attack amid the chaos. At wide receiver, the Giants are led by Darius Slayton, who was expected to be released last August, former Bills practice squad linebacker Isaiah Hodgins and Wan’Dale Robinson, a The 5-foot-8 second-year pro recently recovered from an ACL . tear.
That sounds like a lot of excuses for a quarterback the Giants signed to a four-year, $160 million contract. But here’s the problem:
that really wasn’t the commitment the Giants made. Jones’ contract is guaranteed for two years and is worth $81 million. Her contract was more like a promise ring than an engagement ring. The Giants could easily move on from Jones after the 2024 season. In that case, they would incur a dead cap charge of just $22 million, or about 8% of the cap. By comparison, the Eagles spent about 16% of their cap space on dead money left over from the Carson Wentz trade. It’s fair to wonder whether the Giants will keep Jones beyond 2024, since paying Jones clearly wasn’t in the plans when Schoen and Daboll took over. In April 2022, Schoen and Daboll must decide whether they want to pick up Jones’ fifth-year option, which would guarantee the quarterback about $20 million in 2023. Given that At that time, Jones was one of the most profitable players. vulnerable quarterback in NFL history and has led a Jason Garrett-designed offense that has been dead last in touchdowns the past two seasons, it makes sense to opt out of it. But Jones played well last season. He has greatly reduced his turnover issues, and Daboll has found a way to make Jones an effective dual-threat QB with his runs and accurate short passes. The Giants made the playoffs and Jones trapped them in QB purgatory:
too good to replace (New York had the 24th overall pick in the draft), but probably not good enough to win the Super Bowl.
The simple analysis is that the Giants should not have paid Jones $40 million per year. But what is the alternative? Derek Carr is 32 years old and signed with the Saints as a free agent for $150 million over four years. Whether it’s an illusion or not, I promise you, you won’t find 10 New York Giants fans who chose Carr over Jones this season. New York could have gone the cheap veteran route and simply given the responsibility to Jacoby Brissett or journeyman Tyrod Taylor, who replaced Jones. But it could be a bold move for a team that just made the playoffs. And it’s easy to say one team should do it when it’s someone else’s team. But try telling your fan base that you’re letting the QB, who just won a playoff game, go to free agency. High-level midfielders get paid because they are elite, but average midfielders get paid because no one wants to be left on musical chairs. The market is defined as much by scarcity as it is by talent.
One of the arguments against paying too much for a mediocre quarterback like Jones is that an expensive QB contract can limit a team’s ability to pay other veterans. This isn’t a problem for the Giants because they don’t have many veterans worth paying for. Who else on this list has great value? Last season, defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and offensive tackle Andrew Thomas were seemingly under center revelations. The Giants signed him to a long-term contract this offseason. The biggest loss in signing Jones could be the return of Saquon Barkley, but with the market back on track, a long-term investment in Barkley may not be in the team’s plans.
Outside of those players, the Giants don’t really have much talent that is at risk of escaping for financial reasons. Perhaps the Giants could spend more in free agency without Jones. But how many rebuilding teams turn things around by wasting tons of money in free agency? So far, signing Jones hasn’t hurt anything important for this team. The Giants’ real mistake was declining Jones’ fifth-year option for 2023, leaving them in this problem. But few people who think Jones is bad are now calling for him to get $20 million guaranteed for the 2023 season, when that decision comes in April 2022. And so the Giants paid give Jones a tax to move the team four steps forward. in 2022. Today, in 2023, they take two steps back. Just as Schoen said, it can happen. It is important for the Giants to continue to develop their players as the season progresses.
The Giants are the youngest team in the NFL to use immediate age weighting. In Week 5, the Giants had the youngest offensive line, youngest running back and youngest secondary player in the league. The Giants started two rookies at cornerback in Week 1, the first time an NFL team has done that in 15 years. Suddenly, giving up 30 sacks in five games makes more sense. The Giants made mistakes with rookies because this team had too many rookies. If the Giants find a way to get away from the top pick, it could mean Jones and/or the young guys around him are developing and working to become a breakout.
But if the Giants play poorly the rest of this season and end up with a top-10 pick, they could get one of the quality quarterbacks in the 2024 draft. Even if they don’t take get a top pick or two and miss out
The Giants may be able to get one of the many other quarterbacks in one of the deepest quarterback drafts ever if they pass on Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Jones’ $35.5 million 2024 salary is already guaranteed, so a rookie passer could follow him for a year, after which the franchise could smoothly part ways with Jones and hand over the keys in 2025.
It’s not the best idea to be discussing 2025 in Week 5 of the 2023 campaign. But as soon as the Giants defeated Minnesota in the playoffs the previous year, they were shackled into being unable to replace Jones until 2024. The playoff victory removed them from
the running for a new quarterback in 2023, delaying their pursuit of one until 2024. No more competition until 2025, when there will be a new quarterback in 2024. Schoen and Daboll saved their opportunity to draft a quarterback by re-signing Jones as the starter and their own butts by keeping Jones under contract in case they can’t locate his replacement.
Jones might not end up being the Giants’ long-term player. He’s only staying the night right now. And this was never going to be a quick cure, as Schoen said. Just keep in mind that this is fine, regardless of how poorly the Giants do against the Bills.
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