While Risky, the Tigers’ Bet on Colt Keith Makes Sense for Both Sides

The 22-year-old has yet to make a major league appearance, but that didn’t stop Detroit from signing the second baseman to a six-year, $28.6 million contract extension.
Colt Keith has the potential to be a bat-first second baseman like Gleyber Torres of the New York Yankees, according to the Detroit Tigers. Keith, 22, has never participated in a major league game. The Tigers stand to save approximately $12 million in addition to gaining three years of control if they sign Keith to a six-year, $28.6 million extension.

if they’re not correct? It’s an overpay, to be sure, but as the Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners both lost their wagers on Scott Kingery ($24 million over six years), that’s not the kind of money that can ruin a franchise.

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For this reason, the agreement makes sense on all fronts. If the player is a consistent contributor, the Tigers purchase at least three more years of control and receive a discount. Additionally, they convey the organization’s dedication to its young players as they emerge from reconstruction.
Though in smaller quantities, these offers will be more common. From a risk/reward perspective, these contracts make sense only in the following three scenarios: 1) the player is a position player; 2) the organization is confident that the player’s drive to perform will not be diminished by the financial security; and 3) the player is a top prospect who has demonstrated consistent performance in the minors. Pitchers are less reliable, particularly in light of the possibility of injuries.

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