A year from today, when we look back at the NFL Draft, we will see a handful of talents who had no business being taken in the first round. Then there’s the flip side of the coin, when we question why a certain player dropped.
Today, we’ll look at a couple “buyer beware” prospects. These players are projected to be taken in the top 50 of the NFL Draft, but they have flaws that keep them from living up to their draft expectations.
Full disclaimer: These are my thoughts after watching these players. I understand that most draft analysts adore these prospects, but I struggle to picture them as “Tier I” players at the next level.
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona.
Morgan has been one of the most popular picks for the San Francisco 49ers at No. 31, assuming they stay put. Morgan is a Tier III talent in my opinion, and I believe he should be selected in the third round rather than the first by the 49ers.
Morgan’s game has certain intrinsic weaknesses that I don’t think will be corrected, primarily since he is a fifth-year senior. Morgan’s arm length was in the 90th percentile, but his height (18th), weight (37th), 40 (36th), 3-cone (17th), and vertical jump (42nd) were all much lower than average.
His hands are also in the 57th percentile, as shown on film. Morgan is frequently late and off-target with his punch. When an offensive lineman appears to be about to hug you, it’s cause for concern. I’ve seen it much too often with Morgan. He is also inconsistent in gaining the requisite depth in pass protection, and his awareness is limited.
Morgan is fairly strong and appears to be at ease on the move, but his faults with the passing game make him too vulnerable to being beaten cleanly in a variety of situations. You’d expect more from a player as experienced as Morgan, but I don’t see much upside here.
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama
Without a question, McKinstry is the coolest name in the NFL Draft. However, McKinstry’s average size, wingspan, and outstanding characteristics are concerning for a player expected to go early in the draft.
The 49ers’ quest for another last-second miracle merits a thorough rewind.
Despite suffering a Jones fracture, McKinstry ran a 4.47 40 at the NFL Combine. My main issue with watching him is his lack of a second gear. Charvarius Ward can hit third and fourth gear, allowing him to be aggressive while sitting on routes. McKinstry’s 34.5″ vertical and 10’01 broad jump indicate he isn’t an explosive athlete.
While his numbers are acceptable, Kool-Aid could have easily allowed a couple of touchdowns in the games I watched. His “feel” for coverage is not what you would expect from a first-round talent. Combine it with average recovery speed and overall awareness, and I’d take this player…with the 49ers’ second-round choice.
Tyler Guyton (OT, Oklahoma)
Guyton is best described as the player that pundits say Georgia offensive lineman Amarius Mims is. The team that chooses Guyton should not expect a clean prospect in year one.
He’s 6’8, 322 pounds—Guyton gained weight in 2023, detracting from his finest attribute—his athleticism. But we’re talking about a player from an RPO offense who has made 13 career starts at right tackle.
Guyton’s game revolves around being consistently inconsistent. Once you get past his stature and movement skills, you see a player who outruns linebackers at the second level, shoots his hands outside of the defender’s frame, flat-out whiffs when punching, oversets, or is late with his hands, allowing the defender to get into his chest.
Guyton has demonstrated his natural athleticism by displacing a defensive tackle on a down block and redirecting in pass pro. Guyton understands where to look when he pulls and can send a defender flying. However, there are more questions than answers for a player with limited expertise.
That is not a prospect I will bet on in the first round.
Cooper DeJean (CB), Iowa
DeJean is an exceptional player when the ball is in his hands. He’s one of the best returners in recent NFL history, with a knack for getting his hands on the ball. DeJean ran a sub 4.45 40-yard sprint and a 38″ vertical jump during his Pro Day. He’s an explosive athlete. So, there is a baseline.
My main concern with DeJean is his reps when he isn’t on the sideline. He is a scheme-dependent cornerback. There are just minor complications when he needs to turn and go straight. However, when he does the same on an in-breaking route or plays pure man coverage, you can sense the tension in his hips.
There’s a reason he didn’t perform any shuttles during his pro day. DeJean takes a step back in separation when he has to transition. Even though he is a terrific (linear) athlete, there are severe worries about his ability to change direction. Football is not played in a straight line, and his slot reps leave a lot to be desired.
There are also reps where DeJean gets pushed around or doesn’t look interested in tackling. So we have that, and, instinctually — think in terms of route progression — you don’t see a player who knows what’s coming.
When DeJean can keep his eyes on the quarterback, he’s fine. But there are too many examples of receivers running by him in press coverage or DeJean losing separation during the reps that’ll look a lot like the ones in the NFL.
Last year, Iowa had a cornerback drafted in the third round named Riley Moss. He put up nearly identical numbers as DeJean. Iowa asked more in coverage out of Moss. To me, that was telling. Moss, to me, was better in coverage. But he didn’t have the interceptions or special teams ability, which is why he fell.
I’m not sure where DeJean succeeds in the NFL, and I don’t think forecasts of him playing nickel or safety are accurate, since his weaknesses would be accentuated there.
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