It’s risky to stay at 31 in the first round of the NFL draft. The San Francisco 49ers can wait, but should they? In a draft where first-round talent dries up in the early 20s and the second tier is an obvious drop-off yet deep, moving up or down may be the best option.
The rationale behind a move up is that the 49ers require impact. In my opinion, this selection includes six players who can truly replace Trent Williams at left tackle in two years. Go grab one.
Kyle Shanahan will be tempted to look around in a huge promotion. Georgia tight end Brock Bowers has been compared to George Kittle, LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has some Brandon Aiyuk in his game, and Iowa’s Cooper DeJean is a ball-hawking punt returner.
However, the greatest necessity and most difficult challenge is to replace Williams. Amarius Mims of Georgia is one of the draft’s players that could tumble into the 20s. With only eight games under his belt, he’s an injury concern, but when he’s on the field, he’s performed admirably, as he demonstrated against Ohio State in 2022.
A move up for Mims would cost a first and a third-round pick at 24, or a first combined with a fourth and fifth to reach 28. An Aiyuk trade could be another option, but conversations must continue in order to gain clarity. I believe the Niners hope to keep him.
If DeJean reaches his late 20s, he may be able to make a little step up.
STAYING PUT.
If the Niners want to keep their first three selections, they must wait to see who drops to 31. It becomes a subjective choice.
For Faithful, the options for a right tackle are Tyler Guyton of Oklahoma, Arizona’s Jordan Morgan, or BYU’s Kingsley Suamataia.
Guyton has the prototypical size but plays too tall, lacks power, and requires technique improvement. Morgan does not drive his guy off the line in the run game; rather, he latches on and stonewalls, making him a stronger pass protector. The flipside of Kyle Shanahan’s priorities is on the line. Suamataia possesses 5-star tools but hasn’t developed his technique. When he failed at sessions in Mobile, scouts and analysts blamed a lack of technique for losing against greater power and quickness.
Guyton is expected to be in his early to late twenties, Morgan in the middle of the pack, and Suamataia in late second or early third place.
So, who’s worth it at 31? Defensive line if they’re sold on 3-Tech Jer’Zhan Newton of Illinois, criticized for his short arms, or Penn State’s Chop Robinson, the fastest, twitchiest edge. Darius Robinson of Missouri is being touted as a potential Arik Armstead replacement.
Nate Wiggins is a quick cover corner with a 4.28 40 time, but at 173 pounds, he’s too light to halt the run. Kool-Aid McKinstry provides tremendous coverage but may lack run support.
The X-factor is to choose a wide receiver at 31, with the option to stay put or drop down for who they want.
If the Niners stay put, the most likely pick appears to be on the defensive line, alongside Newton or Chop if they fall. Guyton has left, and it is too early for the other tackles, late first-early second-tier wide outs, and top linebackers.
TRADING DOWN.
The absence of excellent possibilities at 31 supports going out of the first round. If quarterbacks Bo Nix of Oregon or Michael Penix Jr. of the University of Washington are still available, teams may consider moving into the first round to secure the extra contract year.
The Niners’ trade haul of moving back isn’t very impressive, likely consisting of a second and fifth round pick, but it provides them more weapons to move up and down. This is a draft in which mobility can be a valuable advantage in obtaining targets at appropriate draft slot values.
If they trade down, who would be the target? At wide receiver, possibly Malachi Corley of Western Kentucky or South Carolina’s Xavier Legette. Corley is compared to Deebo Samuel as a wide back YAC target. Corley lacks a fully developed route tree, and the body type has led to injuries for Samuel, but the Niners will bring him in for a 30 visit. Legette brings physicality, excellent hands, and return skills with 4.39 speed.
On the offensive line, centers Jackson Powers-Johnson of Oregon and Zach Frazier of West Virginia, guard Christian Haynes of UConn and Washington tackle Roger Rosengarten could be targets.
Marshawn Kneeland of Western Michigan is quietly creeping into the top 50 on the defensive line, bringing a valuable skill set as an excellent run defender who sets the edge well. He’s also scheduled for a top-30 visit. Kneeland fits the Niners’ preferred size and athleticism, as a 6-3/267 edge with 34-inch arms and a track background.
The top linebackers in the class are in the second round, but the 49ers are interested in Trevin Wallace of Kentucky, who is predicted to go late in the third round.
Ennis Rakestraw is the draft’s finest run defender at cornerback. Players with the Niners’ preferred skill profile, such as T.J. Tampa and Max Melton, will also be present.
I believe the Niners are better off moving up for Mims or targeting Kneeland. Keep an eye on the large edge; he fulfills all of the boxes: he fills a crucial team need to stop the run at the edge, he has the desirable body type, and he will make the telltale 30-minute visit.
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