MLB home run props for 5/17: Bet on Betts
This might be the lowest-priced home run prop we take all year, but we can’t resist considering how hot Aaron Judge is at the plate.
The New York Yankees slugger leads MLB in batting average (.452), slugging percentage (1.024) and home runs (five) over the last 15 days, and his numbers are somehow even better over the last week. Judge is also batting .364 and slugging .636 in 14 career plate appearances against Chicago White Sox starter Mike Clevinger.
We’re interested in fading Kyle Gibson with a home run prop on this fine Friday. The St. Louis Cardinals starter is giving up the 19th-highest barrel rate (11.5 percent) among 253 pitchers who have faced a minimum of 75 batters this season.
Let’s roll with Rafael Devers, who is 8-18 against Gibson in his career with two doubles and a .556 slugging percentage. Devers is batting .302 and slugging .593 against right-handed pitching this year, and all six of his home runs have come against righties.
Mookie Betts has hit only one home run in his last 97 at-bats, but this is the perfect opportunity for him to end the power slump.
The Los Angeles Dodgers star is batting .444 in his career against Cincinnati Reds starter Frankie Montas, and he has a .320 batting average and .560 slugging percentage over the past week. The wind at Dodger Stadium is projected to blow strongly out to right-center field during the game, so this is a great spot to bet on Betts.
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