Graham Ashcraft appeared to be the Cincinnati Reds’ MVP early in the season. The right-hander dominated April in his debut season as a reliever, giving up just one earned run in 11 games. However, it appears that his luck has ran out lately, and a concerning statistic might be the cause.
Ashcraft’s chase rate, ground-ball rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate are all in the 95th percentile or higher as of May 27. To put it another way, he has been producing soft contact and keeping the ball on the ground, which is precisely what a shut-down reliever should do.
However, his outstanding first month, in which he allowed just two extra-base hits and averaged 79.3 mph, is largely responsible for those numbers. How times have changed, boy.
Reds reliever Graham Ashcraft has shifted away from a ground-ball heavy approach, and the results are embarrassing
In May, Ashcraft has hit the gas pedal. His cutter has ticked up in velocity, and he seems to be chasing strikeouts. Unfortunately, the extra zip has also come with the byproduct of a higher hard-hit rate. Nearly half of Ashcraft’s cutters this month have been launched at 95-plus mph, which has increased the opponents’ expected batting average from .249 to .342.
Ashcraft’s slider, his secondary pitch, has been slightly less effective than it was in April. The pitch still commands a sub-.150 expected batting average, but the hard-hit rate in May off the breaking pitch is 50%. Even worse, all of his sliders in the past two weeks have been hard hit. That is, if the player makes contact. The pitch also had a 63% strikeout rate over that span.
Ashcraft has never been a strikeout pitcher, in actuality. He possesses an excellent velocity, but his strikeout percentage has never been higher than the 14th percentile. Nonetheless, he has been among the best ground-ball artists, finishing in the top quarter in each of his previous two seasons and in the 92nd percentile in 2022.
In other words, Ashcraft is escaping his identity as a pitcher.
It is necessary for him to rank among the top 10 relievers in April in terms of hard-hit and ground-ball rates. He should put the person who is getting close to the top 10 in K/9 in May out of his mind. Ashcraft and the Reds may be able to change things if he can return to himself.
